via Russ Roberts:
Two top U.S. hurricane forecasters, famous across Deep South hurricane country, are quitting the practice of making a seasonal forecast in December because it doesn’t work.
William Gray and Phil Klotzbach say a look back shows their past 20 years of forecasts had no predictive value.
I love the intellectual honesty this must have taken. I wish practitioners of software development could look back and evaluate what doesn’t work, but that’s challenging from both a pragmatic and human-nature standpoint.